Market evidence to support a human review of European wholesale power trading.
Regulation (EU) No 1227/2011 on wholesale energy market integrity and transparency (REMIT) prohibits market manipulation and attempted manipulation (Article 5) and the misuse of inside information (Article 3), and obliges participants to publish inside information (Article 4). REMIT II, Regulation (EU) 2024/1106, extended the regime and strengthened ACER’s role. The UK operates a retained equivalent supervised by Ofgem.
The obligation is continuous. It is not discharged by an annual review, and it is not discharged by a tool that produces alerts nobody can explain the derivation of. A surveillance function has to be able to say, about a specific delivery hour, what was observed, what was expected, and how far apart the two were.
National regulators have now published well over a hundred REMIT decisions, from economic withholding by gas-fired plant to wash trades and late outage disclosure. Read every published enforcement decision and the case write-ups.
These review themes draw on reconstructed fundamentals and published bids where available.
Article 5: market manipulation
The cleared price for a delivery hour sits materially above or below the price a merit order reconstructed from published fundamentals would have produced, after accounting for the model's own calibrated error.
Article 5: market manipulation
Capacity that the reconstructed merit order places in-merit at the cleared price is reported unavailable or simply absent from the outturn, without a published outage explaining it.
Article 5: market manipulation
A technology fleet is necessary to meet modelled demand. Public data does not identify its owners. Pivotality is structural context, not a finding about conduct.
Article 5: market manipulation
The shape of the aggregated supply curve around the clearing point implies that a small volume shift would have moved the price by a large amount.
Article 5: market manipulation
The blocks setting the price in an hour are unusually concentrated relative to the same hour across the calibration window.
Article 5: cross-border manipulation
Prices across an interconnected border diverge in a direction the available coupling would normally have arbitraged away.
Findings are indicators for human review, never determinations of abuse. Unseen outages, constraints and hedges can explain them. Reconstructed findings carry model error; public market data does not identify trading firms.
The Learn guides explain walk-forward calibration, captured curves and counterfactual assumptions. Each screen identifies the data and limits relevant to the result being read.